Постинг
16.05.2016 14:50 -
Goldminer ETF GDX:arcx
Background
The price action in the Goldminer ETF GDX:arcx has been explosive off the lows set back in January and the price has managed to more than double since. The pullbacks during the charge higher has been relatively shallow and has left little room or opportunities for orderly dip buying. Currently this ETF has been consolidating a peak set in early May and appears as though it might be setting up for yet another charge higher.
Time cycles have been telling us that price should move in an upward trajectory for quite some time yet, for at least around 360 days to be more specific. Time cycles are also telling us that it is possible that the peak set on March 16 concluded the first wave higher of the new uptrend and that the low on March 23 was the low of the consolidation of that first cycle higher. The current cycle off that March low could possibly be the first part of a third wave higher which is often the strongest and longest part of a trend.
The GDX:arcx has managed to, on its way higher, take out some important price relations and the next pivot with important alignment to the January lows isn't found until $31, if that level is taken out the next important longer term pivot is located at $42.
Support is currently found around $23.30 where we have horizontal price support and a rising trendline currently defining the advance higher. As long as the price can stay above this level, the immediate bullish prospects are intact.
Management and risk description
The current situation in the GDX:arcx offers an opportunity to go long ahead of what could be the strongest part of the current cycle higher. The plan is to buy this market upon a close above $25.60, with a stop upon a close below $23.30 and longer term targets of $31 and $41.
The targets at this point in time are indications and might need to be updated depending on price action and structure later on.
The risk to this setup is a fake breakout that triggers the trade before a quick reversal lower. Also, this ETF is very volatile which should be taken into account when taking a position.
Parameters
Entry: buy a close above $25.60.
Stop: close below $23.30.
Target: $31 and $42.
Time horizon: through 2016.
цитирайThe price action in the Goldminer ETF GDX:arcx has been explosive off the lows set back in January and the price has managed to more than double since. The pullbacks during the charge higher has been relatively shallow and has left little room or opportunities for orderly dip buying. Currently this ETF has been consolidating a peak set in early May and appears as though it might be setting up for yet another charge higher.
Time cycles have been telling us that price should move in an upward trajectory for quite some time yet, for at least around 360 days to be more specific. Time cycles are also telling us that it is possible that the peak set on March 16 concluded the first wave higher of the new uptrend and that the low on March 23 was the low of the consolidation of that first cycle higher. The current cycle off that March low could possibly be the first part of a third wave higher which is often the strongest and longest part of a trend.
The GDX:arcx has managed to, on its way higher, take out some important price relations and the next pivot with important alignment to the January lows isn't found until $31, if that level is taken out the next important longer term pivot is located at $42.
Support is currently found around $23.30 where we have horizontal price support and a rising trendline currently defining the advance higher. As long as the price can stay above this level, the immediate bullish prospects are intact.
Management and risk description
The current situation in the GDX:arcx offers an opportunity to go long ahead of what could be the strongest part of the current cycle higher. The plan is to buy this market upon a close above $25.60, with a stop upon a close below $23.30 and longer term targets of $31 and $41.
The targets at this point in time are indications and might need to be updated depending on price action and structure later on.
The risk to this setup is a fake breakout that triggers the trade before a quick reversal lower. Also, this ETF is very volatile which should be taken into account when taking a position.
Parameters
Entry: buy a close above $25.60.
Stop: close below $23.30.
Target: $31 and $42.
Time horizon: through 2016.
