Постинг
14.04.2016 08:22 -
Global Market Analysis: Markets on tenterhooks, no signs of a bull
Expect the S&P/ASX to rally towards 5,350 to 5,400 in coming months
Hong Kong's Hang Seng outlook continues to remain short-term bearish
Gold should see a rally, with levels towards $1,350/oz a good probability
S&P/ASX200 Index: neutral
The S&P/ASX200 closed lower on April 11, down 83.40 points (-1.64%) at 4,999.38. The benckmark index has rallied since then; it was 5,091.90 at 0231 GMT on April 14.
Meanwhile S&P/ASX 200 futures were up 23 points in overnight trade on April 11, suggesting a slightly stronger open this morning.
On the daily chart, the price continues to move lower, correcting the February to March rally. Although the price may bounce from current levels, we believe there is a high probability of slightly lower levels, towards the 4,960 to 4,900 region.
It is here where we find the 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone of the prior rally as well as previous chart support, marked from the major lows of August, September, and December 2015.
On the weekly chart, given the confirmation of bullish momentum divergence at the February low, we believe a significant low is now in place.
Assuming a higher low indeed forms in the 4,900 region, we expect a rally back towards the 5,350 to 5,400 region over the coming months. As shown on the chart, 5,350 is both the 50% retracement level of the 2015 decline as well as prior chart resistance.
S&P500 Futures: neutral
S&P500 futures closed higher on Wednesday April 13 at 2,061.
On the daily time frame, price continues to push higher towards the resistance zone between 2,075 and 2,109, marked by late 2015 highs. The rally is looking increasingly exhausted and the formation of a bearish wedge pattern suggests the strong likelihood of near-term weakness.
Below current levels, initial support is found between 2,007 and 1,982, marked by previous highs and lows.
Longer-term, the weekly chart shows price continuing to push higher towards chart resistance between 2,075 and 2,110 marked by the late 2015 highs.
The impulsive rally from the February lows is an early indication of an improving outlook, however in order to turn bullish we would require corrective declines from current levels.
While we may see some further short-term upside, the probability of a pullback from current levels is increasing. However, with the price failing to turn lower as yet, we will revert to a neutral stance.
цитирайHong Kong's Hang Seng outlook continues to remain short-term bearish
Gold should see a rally, with levels towards $1,350/oz a good probability
S&P/ASX200 Index: neutral
The S&P/ASX200 closed lower on April 11, down 83.40 points (-1.64%) at 4,999.38. The benckmark index has rallied since then; it was 5,091.90 at 0231 GMT on April 14.
Meanwhile S&P/ASX 200 futures were up 23 points in overnight trade on April 11, suggesting a slightly stronger open this morning.
On the daily chart, the price continues to move lower, correcting the February to March rally. Although the price may bounce from current levels, we believe there is a high probability of slightly lower levels, towards the 4,960 to 4,900 region.
It is here where we find the 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone of the prior rally as well as previous chart support, marked from the major lows of August, September, and December 2015.
On the weekly chart, given the confirmation of bullish momentum divergence at the February low, we believe a significant low is now in place.
Assuming a higher low indeed forms in the 4,900 region, we expect a rally back towards the 5,350 to 5,400 region over the coming months. As shown on the chart, 5,350 is both the 50% retracement level of the 2015 decline as well as prior chart resistance.
S&P500 Futures: neutral
S&P500 futures closed higher on Wednesday April 13 at 2,061.
On the daily time frame, price continues to push higher towards the resistance zone between 2,075 and 2,109, marked by late 2015 highs. The rally is looking increasingly exhausted and the formation of a bearish wedge pattern suggests the strong likelihood of near-term weakness.
Below current levels, initial support is found between 2,007 and 1,982, marked by previous highs and lows.
Longer-term, the weekly chart shows price continuing to push higher towards chart resistance between 2,075 and 2,110 marked by the late 2015 highs.
The impulsive rally from the February lows is an early indication of an improving outlook, however in order to turn bullish we would require corrective declines from current levels.
While we may see some further short-term upside, the probability of a pullback from current levels is increasing. However, with the price failing to turn lower as yet, we will revert to a neutral stance.
Hang Seng Futures: bearish
Hang Seng futures closed lower on Friday April 11, down 340 points (minus 1.63%) at 20,467 points.
On the daily time frame, since our analysis last Tuesday, price has set a new short-term high at 21,020, however this has not been confirmed by the slow stochastic, which is now crossing over from overbought levels – a bearish sign.
Below current levels there is support between 19,748 and 19,578, marked by previous highs, the 50 day moving average and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the prior rally.
On the weekly chart, the formation of a bearish candle suggests near term downside is highly likely, below current levels there is broad support between 19,600 and 17,480 marked by the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2008 to 2015 rally.
Given the confirmation of bullish momentum divergence at the February low, any declines at this stage are expected to be corrective. The outlook continues to remain bearish in the short term.
Spot Gold (XAUUSD): neutral
Spot gold prices closed lower on Friday April 11,, down $10.10 (-0.82%) at $1,222.60/oz.
While the gold price did initially trade as low as $1,209.05/oz, the close was in the middle of the daily trading range, suggesting there are buyers below current levels.
On the daily time frame, the slow stochastic has unwound to the oversold region, suggesting that the recent decline has alleviated the previous overbought conditions.
To date, the decline looks corrective in nature, in that the price remains within a trend channel. Nevertheless, being relatively short in both time and price as compared to the prior rally, we feel this correction as a little further to run, targeting the $1,190/oz to $1,165/oz region.
On the weekly chart, the gold price is pulling back towards support between $1,191/oz and $1165/oz marked by the late 2015 high and 50% retracement level.
Some further near term weakness is expected, however once this is completed, we believe higher levels towards $1,350/oz are a good probability. The December 2015 to March 2016 rally was very impulsive and it is likely the beginnings of a larger upwards move over the coming months.
Having been bearish for some weeks, updating short-term outlook to neutral, with the view downside from current levels is somewhat limited. More so, also believe the next good trading opportunity will come from buying at slightly lower levels.
WTI crude futures: neutral
WTI crude futures closed lower on Friday, down $1.55 (-4.04%) at $36.79/barrel.
On the daily time frame, the price continues to move lower towards the support zone between $35.96/barrel and $33.98/b marked by previous highs and lows, the 50-day moving average as well as containing the 50% retracement level of the previous rally.
At this stage declines are expected to be corrective given the impulsive nature of the rally from the February low.
In the longer term, the weekly chart highlights the price making an initial pullback following a break of the upper boundary of a large bullish wedge pattern. While this is an indication of the improving outlook, in order to suggest a change in trend we require a higher low above $26.05/b followed by a higher high.
The WTI outlook remains neutral, turning bullish on signs the corrective declines are complete.
цитирайHang Seng futures closed lower on Friday April 11, down 340 points (minus 1.63%) at 20,467 points.
On the daily time frame, since our analysis last Tuesday, price has set a new short-term high at 21,020, however this has not been confirmed by the slow stochastic, which is now crossing over from overbought levels – a bearish sign.
Below current levels there is support between 19,748 and 19,578, marked by previous highs, the 50 day moving average and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the prior rally.
On the weekly chart, the formation of a bearish candle suggests near term downside is highly likely, below current levels there is broad support between 19,600 and 17,480 marked by the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2008 to 2015 rally.
Given the confirmation of bullish momentum divergence at the February low, any declines at this stage are expected to be corrective. The outlook continues to remain bearish in the short term.
Spot Gold (XAUUSD): neutral
Spot gold prices closed lower on Friday April 11,, down $10.10 (-0.82%) at $1,222.60/oz.
While the gold price did initially trade as low as $1,209.05/oz, the close was in the middle of the daily trading range, suggesting there are buyers below current levels.
On the daily time frame, the slow stochastic has unwound to the oversold region, suggesting that the recent decline has alleviated the previous overbought conditions.
To date, the decline looks corrective in nature, in that the price remains within a trend channel. Nevertheless, being relatively short in both time and price as compared to the prior rally, we feel this correction as a little further to run, targeting the $1,190/oz to $1,165/oz region.
On the weekly chart, the gold price is pulling back towards support between $1,191/oz and $1165/oz marked by the late 2015 high and 50% retracement level.
Some further near term weakness is expected, however once this is completed, we believe higher levels towards $1,350/oz are a good probability. The December 2015 to March 2016 rally was very impulsive and it is likely the beginnings of a larger upwards move over the coming months.
Having been bearish for some weeks, updating short-term outlook to neutral, with the view downside from current levels is somewhat limited. More so, also believe the next good trading opportunity will come from buying at slightly lower levels.
WTI crude futures: neutral
WTI crude futures closed lower on Friday, down $1.55 (-4.04%) at $36.79/barrel.
On the daily time frame, the price continues to move lower towards the support zone between $35.96/barrel and $33.98/b marked by previous highs and lows, the 50-day moving average as well as containing the 50% retracement level of the previous rally.
At this stage declines are expected to be corrective given the impulsive nature of the rally from the February low.
In the longer term, the weekly chart highlights the price making an initial pullback following a break of the upper boundary of a large bullish wedge pattern. While this is an indication of the improving outlook, in order to suggest a change in trend we require a higher low above $26.05/b followed by a higher high.
The WTI outlook remains neutral, turning bullish on signs the corrective declines are complete.
